I liked this line:
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It happens, however, that the energies and skill of the professional investor and speculator are mainly occupied otherwise.
For most of these persons are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of the probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation a short time ahead of the general public.
We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees. The boom in DSV building is running into the wall of cash requirements and a shortage of fools willing to invest in them. SOR reported last week that they were seeking a S dsvs at rates of USD k a day, a number that if true is so absurd it is beyond satire.
The vessel as you can see from the Keppel Q1 presentation is due to be delivered at some time this year. You can write the script here I suspect: New Orient will be a thinly capitalised company that had sufficient funds to make the progress S dsvs only.
Unable to get work for the vessel they have now have no takeout financing, and will be unable to take delivery from Keppel. A frantic search is therefore underway to find someone, anyone, to try and take the vessel off their hands. At the time the order was signed in when the market was cooling significantlyKeppel issued this press release with the comment: And how you split the risk?
And even more importantly what is the supply side looking like? Unfortunately the timing is spectacularly bad. I say this not to be controversial but a cold examination of the market and the asset. Firstly, and most importantly, the vessel is being classed by Bureau Veritas.
You can read the BV press release and documentation here. Those who have worked for a saturation diving company will appreciate the significance of this, while others may wonder where I am going with it?
Small things can cost you a lot of money and this is a classic example where cutting corners, is I believe, going to render this hull worthless. For those still here, there is no other DSV in the world classed by BV, it is just not a classification society recognised to give a vessel SAT notation.
The only reason you would use them, and not DNV or Lloyds and maybe ABS at a pushis to save money, and anyone looking at buying this vessel at anything close to its construction cost would know the original purchaser did this to be cheap.
Thirdly, the dive system is a Lexmar, and has had known installation problems throughout the build. No one spends USD m on a dive vessel with a Lexmar system. Again it was done to be cheap and it will in all likelihood render the vessel unsellable.
Although I am a paid consultant I have therefore done Keppel a favour and compiled a list of all the possible buyers for this asset who says consultants ask for your watch and then tell you the time? And that is without getting into idle tonnage and the DSVs still to be delivered.
Find me a CFO from one of the big 6 who could take one of these DSVs at anything like book value, and who is willing to go to the stockmarket, with backlog collapsing, and say he has paid anything less than a steal for one of these?
No one outside of these companies could get the vessel into a region where they could hope to recover that sort of cost — and even then not in the current market.
The payoff was an asymetric one to MCS though, who stood to benefit enormously while Keppel are going to be stuck with this eccentric design for a long time prior to reality setting in I suspect. Not everyone can be saved here because there is just insufficient demand until the DSVs return to construction work not maintenance, and that looks a long way off.Commercial Diving Services Neptune provides a complete range of commercial diving and inspection, repair and maintenance services to clients in the oil and .
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